ADESA Canada Price Index
ADESA Canada is the largest provider of wholesale used vehicle auctions in Canada. The Index is calculated from millions of pieces of sales data from ADESA Canada’s live open bidding auctions.
The ADESA Canada Used Vehicle Price Index has been updated through January 2021. The index increased after being adjusted for seasonality. Wholesale prices increased on average by 5.5% M-o-M. The index is up this month because the basket of models has changed. Some high volume but lower residual value models are out and replaced by higher value models.
With more and more OEM’s moving to quarterly sales reporting, it is difficult to confirm exactly how January 2021 closed, but it is estimated that sales have dropped to ~90,000 units vs ~110,000 in January 2020. This year over year decrease is not a surprise given our most populous provinces are currently under stringent lockdown measures, and other regions are cautiously reopening after being on lockdown. While dealerships are considered an essential service; ‘lockdown orders’ meant that unless a new vehicle purchase was critical, most customers have likely chosen to postpone their shopping. As we slowly transition out of lockdowns in many parts of the country and move into more of a springtime selling period, the hope is that this will fuel demand. However, it is of note that the auto landscape continues to be challenged by inventory shortages and fallout from the global shortage of semiconductor chips.
Canadian auto sales should improve as the year progresses with widespread inoculations, the continued government support of recovery efforts and improving consumer confidence.
Price movements by segment were mostly negative in January. Compact SUVs showed the most drastic decrease at -4.7% ($725), followed by Minivans at -2.4% ($318), Fullsize Pickups at -1.2% ($432), and Mid Compacts at -.1% ($11). Midsize SUVs showed the highest increase at 4.0% ($785), followed by Midsize vehicles at 1.3% ($155).
How ADESA calculates the UVPI
ADESA Canada is the largest provider of wholesale used vehicle auctions in Canada. The Index is calculated from millions of pieces of sales data from ADESA Canada’s live open bidding auctions with the addition of used vehicle auction sales data purchased through the National Auto Auction Association [NAAA]. The data is adjusted for a large number of variables, including type of vehicle, mileage, age and season. A two-step statistical filtering process excludes extreme values in the raw data. The resulting Index provides a picture of the Canadian used vehicle market and depicts the trend of used vehicle prices in Canada.
ADESA Canada notes that the index provides insight into the economy as a whole and consumer spending patterns. It also points to the direction of the used vehicle market and, by implication, of the new vehicle market, as there is a complex relationship between the prices of used and new vehicles which is reflected in the adage ‘Today’s new vehicle is tomorrow’s used vehicle’. Typically, used vehicle prices respond to many macro variables, such as the health of the overall economy, financing available to new versus used vehicles; the volume of vehicles in the pipeline, the age of vehicles on the road, the U.S. dollar exchange rate, incentives and the number of vehicles coming off lease.