ADESA Canada Price Index
ADESA Canada is the largest provider of wholesale used vehicle auctions in Canada. The Index is calculated from millions of pieces of sales data from ADESA Canada’s live open bidding auctions.
The ADESA Canada Used Vehicle Price Index has been updated through June 2021. The index decreased after being adjusted for seasonality. Wholesale prices decreased on average by .7% M-o-M.
To put it lightly, the Canadian auto industry is looking forward to good news. The conversation seems to have shifted from the impact of Covid-19 as we see almost 85% of the population with their first shot, and over 16.6 million Canadians are fully vaccinated. While we have not moved out of the pandemic, Canadians are seeing relaxed measures as the phases allow for more ‘normalcy’.
The focus has shifted to the semi conductor chip shortage and how that is impacting retail auto sales. New vehicle inventory is low, and retail sales are forecasted to be impacted through the fourth quarter of 2021. We expect to see new vehicle inventory recovering in the first half of 2022 and short used supply through 2022.
How was the first half of 2021? 2021 new vehicle sales are up over 2020 – approximately 33% or 213k units. But by the same token, the 2021 industry is off by almost 35% or 340k units when comparing to the first half of 2019. The majority of Canadian OEM’s posted double digit growth June 2021 vs June 2020 and year to date year over year.
Once the chip shortage is behind the industry, the next story to follow will be production and what the balance of inventory, sales & incentives looks like.
Price movements by segment were negative in June. Midsize SUVS showed the most drastic decrease at -7.7% ($1,799), followed by Mid Compacts at -6.5% ($739), Minivans at -3.8% ($603), Fullsize Pickups at -3.6% ($1,365), Compact SUVs at -3.3% ($587), and Midsize vehicles at -.6 ($85).
How ADESA calculates the UVPI
ADESA Canada is the largest provider of wholesale used vehicle auctions in Canada. The Index is calculated from millions of pieces of sales data from ADESA Canada’s live open bidding auctions with the addition of used vehicle auction sales data purchased through the National Auto Auction Association [NAAA]. The data is adjusted for a large number of variables, including type of vehicle, mileage, age and season. A two-step statistical filtering process excludes extreme values in the raw data. The resulting Index provides a picture of the Canadian used vehicle market and depicts the trend of used vehicle prices in Canada.
ADESA Canada notes that the index provides insight into the economy as a whole and consumer spending patterns. It also points to the direction of the used vehicle market and, by implication, of the new vehicle market, as there is a complex relationship between the prices of used and new vehicles which is reflected in the adage ‘Today’s new vehicle is tomorrow’s used vehicle’. Typically, used vehicle prices respond to many macro variables, such as the health of the overall economy, financing available to new versus used vehicles; the volume of vehicles in the pipeline, the age of vehicles on the road, the U.S. dollar exchange rate, incentives and the number of vehicles coming off lease.